Well, it's been another long hiatus. But, check it out: new site design! Hope you like it.
As for content - I don't have anything of my own to post, but I'd like to invite you to read this post over at Oftwominds. I'm a fan of this blog as the author, Charles Hughes Smith, posts on a variety of subjects from economics/finance, self-help/survival, social evolution, food/health, etc. This particular post provides a detailed look at the economy and the way forward. He's a short-/mid-term dollar bull while bearish on the overall economy. It's chock-full of links to some of his own articles as well as a few other blogs.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Quick Thoughts on Chartalism
Chances are that you've never heard of chartalism (unless you arrived here because you Googled the word). I've been reading an increasing number of articles which argue certain points which are central to the economic theory of chartalism. This theory is centrally focused on characteristics of a fiat currency regime. The basic assumptions and conclusions are sound although I have not studied it enough to have a fully informed opinion. Further, I disagree on principle with some conclusions on the surface level.
So what is it all about? Basically, the chartalists suggest that the state issues fiat currency via government spending and recoups (destroys) the money via taxation. Thus, fiat issue is no more than printing money and, if the government did not do so, there would be no money for citizens. This extends to a conclusion that the private sector cannot save money unless the government runs a deficit. This is further shown by using simple algebra with the formula for GDP. This reinforces the argument of the adherents.
I see a few basic flaws in this theory. First, if there were no fiat money, that would not destroy economic activity. There would be, at a minimum, barter activity. Second, it seems to ignore debt (or at least under-appreciate its role like most all schools of economic thought). Since private banks issue credit, the state is not the only entity which can issue currency (depending on one's definition).
Nonetheless, this is important. Governments can and do print money. The U.S. Dollar is essentially backed (primarily) by U.S. Treasuries. In other words, the value of the Dollar is derived by the use of it to pay government debt. The point remains that next time you find yourself in a debate about the nature of the state and deficit spending, one can not summarily dismiss the notion that deficits don't matter or the suggestion that the U.S. will not default on its debt. There are shades of gray to this. Again, I don't completely agree with all the assumptions or conclusions of this theory. But, well-informed (and sometimes even well-intentioned) adherents will make good points - specifically that this theory is sound due to its identity relationship from the GDP math.
One of the main goals of Stop Taking Soma! is to educate and inform. Shouting matches between ideological opponents and semi-informed debate participants are a problem in the political environment. If libertarians (small "l" or big "L") or other marginalized political (or economic) groups fail to understand the perspective of our opponents, we will risk continued marginalization and be reduced to nothing more to uninformed noisemakers.
For more on chartalism and its post-Keynesian cousin circuitism, visit the forum on Steve Keen's blog and read this thread. (Full disclosure: I have not yet read it.)
So what is it all about? Basically, the chartalists suggest that the state issues fiat currency via government spending and recoups (destroys) the money via taxation. Thus, fiat issue is no more than printing money and, if the government did not do so, there would be no money for citizens. This extends to a conclusion that the private sector cannot save money unless the government runs a deficit. This is further shown by using simple algebra with the formula for GDP. This reinforces the argument of the adherents.
I see a few basic flaws in this theory. First, if there were no fiat money, that would not destroy economic activity. There would be, at a minimum, barter activity. Second, it seems to ignore debt (or at least under-appreciate its role like most all schools of economic thought). Since private banks issue credit, the state is not the only entity which can issue currency (depending on one's definition).
Nonetheless, this is important. Governments can and do print money. The U.S. Dollar is essentially backed (primarily) by U.S. Treasuries. In other words, the value of the Dollar is derived by the use of it to pay government debt. The point remains that next time you find yourself in a debate about the nature of the state and deficit spending, one can not summarily dismiss the notion that deficits don't matter or the suggestion that the U.S. will not default on its debt. There are shades of gray to this. Again, I don't completely agree with all the assumptions or conclusions of this theory. But, well-informed (and sometimes even well-intentioned) adherents will make good points - specifically that this theory is sound due to its identity relationship from the GDP math.
One of the main goals of Stop Taking Soma! is to educate and inform. Shouting matches between ideological opponents and semi-informed debate participants are a problem in the political environment. If libertarians (small "l" or big "L") or other marginalized political (or economic) groups fail to understand the perspective of our opponents, we will risk continued marginalization and be reduced to nothing more to uninformed noisemakers.
For more on chartalism and its post-Keynesian cousin circuitism, visit the forum on Steve Keen's blog and read this thread. (Full disclosure: I have not yet read it.)
Monday, March 1, 2010
Cool Trilemmas
I'll admit that my vocabulary did not contain the word "trilemma" until a few weeks ago. It's a natural extension of the commonplace "dilemma" where we have three options. Then, in a span of no more than days, I was exposed to two interesting trilemmas.
The first trilemma that I would like to introduce is the so-called "Impossible Trinity". This hypothesis states that a national economy can only achieve two of the following three characteristics: a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, independent monetary policy. A nation with a fixed exchange rate is able to maintain a stable currency as it relates to the rest of the global economy. China, for example, maintains a fixed exchange rate by pegging its currency to the U.S. Dollar. Nations with free capital movement allow goods and services to be (relatively) freely traded by private citizens across borders without significant taxes or other restrictions. This is a common feature of globalization. Finally, independent monetary policy implies that a nation's banking system (usually via the central bank) can set interest rates and manage the supply of money without outside interference.
This trilemma is an important one to understand (and I think it is generally accurate) in the context of global political economy. Using the China example again, it is clear that as they open up their economy to freer movement of capital, they have to cede monetary authority in order to maintain their fixed exchange rate. This is one major factor in the accumulation of U.S. debt by China. If they wanted to exert a more independent monetary policy, they would either have to be more restrictive in managing capital flows (i.e. less exports to the U.S.) or abandon their fixed peg to the Dollar.
The second trilemma comes courtesy of Dani Rodrik, a Turkish economist at Harvard. Rodrik suggests that the world economy is subject to the following: we cannot simultaneously achieve a deeply integrated global economy, maintain national sovereignty, and operate democratic governments. We can only achieve two of the three at any time. This argument appears to hold true. If we want advanced globalization while maintaining the nation-state, governments would have to forgo much domestic policy - national policy would be focused on policies which enable global economic integration (this appears to be the general direction today, in my opinion, fueled by financial elite corporatism). The second choice would be to pursue globalization while protecting democratic principles. Such an option would require a global government which could act in the interest of the entire world under a democratic framework. Third, we could maintain democratic government and national sovereignty while settling for less global economic integration. Rodrik suggests that this is what the Bretton-Woods system sought to achieve.
So, in summary, trilemmas provide cool thought experiments. These two are interesting and are good to keep in mind when attempting to understand the working of the global political and economic system.
The first trilemma that I would like to introduce is the so-called "Impossible Trinity". This hypothesis states that a national economy can only achieve two of the following three characteristics: a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, independent monetary policy. A nation with a fixed exchange rate is able to maintain a stable currency as it relates to the rest of the global economy. China, for example, maintains a fixed exchange rate by pegging its currency to the U.S. Dollar. Nations with free capital movement allow goods and services to be (relatively) freely traded by private citizens across borders without significant taxes or other restrictions. This is a common feature of globalization. Finally, independent monetary policy implies that a nation's banking system (usually via the central bank) can set interest rates and manage the supply of money without outside interference.
This trilemma is an important one to understand (and I think it is generally accurate) in the context of global political economy. Using the China example again, it is clear that as they open up their economy to freer movement of capital, they have to cede monetary authority in order to maintain their fixed exchange rate. This is one major factor in the accumulation of U.S. debt by China. If they wanted to exert a more independent monetary policy, they would either have to be more restrictive in managing capital flows (i.e. less exports to the U.S.) or abandon their fixed peg to the Dollar.
The second trilemma comes courtesy of Dani Rodrik, a Turkish economist at Harvard. Rodrik suggests that the world economy is subject to the following: we cannot simultaneously achieve a deeply integrated global economy, maintain national sovereignty, and operate democratic governments. We can only achieve two of the three at any time. This argument appears to hold true. If we want advanced globalization while maintaining the nation-state, governments would have to forgo much domestic policy - national policy would be focused on policies which enable global economic integration (this appears to be the general direction today, in my opinion, fueled by financial elite corporatism). The second choice would be to pursue globalization while protecting democratic principles. Such an option would require a global government which could act in the interest of the entire world under a democratic framework. Third, we could maintain democratic government and national sovereignty while settling for less global economic integration. Rodrik suggests that this is what the Bretton-Woods system sought to achieve.
So, in summary, trilemmas provide cool thought experiments. These two are interesting and are good to keep in mind when attempting to understand the working of the global political and economic system.
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