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Sunday, November 8, 2009

Loose Ends... Vol. LXVIII

We have officially hit double-digit unemployment. The BLS provided its preliminary estimate for October employment - the result is 10.2% unemployment. The seasonally-adjusted U-6 rate, which is a broader definition of unemployment, is now at 17.5%. I don't believe that we've hit the peak yet. There is also reason to believe that the current rate should be higher as the "CES Net Birth/Death Model" which seeks to estimate new job creation that is unreported in the official surveys has added over a net one million jobs this year.

The Obama administration has been touting the success of the stimulus package in creating or saving over 600k jobs. We'll see if this strategy pays off. Politically, I think they may have been better off doing/saying less and blaming Bush more. They have claimed enough glory at this point to own the results going forward. There has been nothing done to correct the systemic weaknesses in the economy.

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The House passed H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act, by a slim 220-215 margin. Enough Democrats voted for it after a vote on an anti-abortion amendment passed during the floor proceedings. It is now up to the Senate where it will be difficult to get 60 votes. It is much easier to get things like this through the House where the Democrats enjoy a significant majority.

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