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Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Indiana - Blue State Review

I wouldn't exactly call Indiana a blue state yet. The below chart summarizes the election results for the Republicans and Democrats in 2004 and 2008. It compares the returns for President, Governor, and the summarized vote for all House races.



As you can see, there are some stark differences between 2004 and 2008. The most interesting statistic in this chart is that the Democrats received more votes in the Congressional races than Obama did for President. Think about that for a moment. That means that statewide, there was a power shift. Could this be the Obama effect? Well, in 2004, Bush carried more votes (and a higher percentage) than his down ticket colleagues. This is clearly not a straight-ticket phenomenon either as the GOP won the gubernatorial race in a landslide. And it's probably more than just an Obama effect.


Obama's victory in Indiana (and the congressional races as well) cannot be chalked up solely to the ground game either. In all three races, one party lost ground versus the 2004 race. This implies that there was most certainly a switch in either the makeup of the voters or the choices of the voters themselves. Realistically, both of these facts are true. Two things are for certain, Indiana voters are not afraid to split their ticket and they are not as close-minded as they are generally perceived to be. I'm not sure why the GOP has dominated the presidential landscape so much here for so long. We've had Democrats serving both in the Governor's mansion and in the U.S. Senate.


2004 data sourced here and 2008 data sourced here.

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